Harris v. Trump.

Let’s take a snapshot on the eve of the Democratic National Coronation, a characterization that many of you apparently found objectionable. We’re going to talk swing states, take a look at the major factors that can change the dynamics of the election moving forward and identify the greatest looming threat on the horizon. But let’s address the elephant in the room with a family discussion first and foremost, and that’s how we wound up with Kamala Harris on top of the Democratic ticket and why I found the process to be less than stellar.

To begin, I have been clear all along that you can support a vote-blue-no-matter-who strategy with a clear conscience no matter where you fall along the political spectrum.

Reason number one is that a second Trump term would be disastrous and put marginalized groups, immigrants and poor people at tremendous risk, especially if he winds up with control of Congress. The Trump folks can back off Project 2025 all they want but the fact of the matter is that it’s their guiding policy document and there’s little doubt in my mind that they will act with all deliberate speed to enact most of the proposed measures. Not to mention, if Trump somehow pulls this off, it seems clear that apart from clearing himself of any charges, pardoning the January 6th insurrectionists and using his AG to target political opponents, he’s not even pretending to want to do this job. For all the talk of Biden’s decline, the Donald is basically just a saggy, sweaty, slurring pumpkin at this point.

Reason number two is the argument I’ve made throughout this cycle: Progressives lost the race a long time ago when relatively few, if any, of our policy proposals made it onto the ballot in any serious way. The things that candidates like Jill Stein and Cornel West represent are excluded from any serious policy discussions and entirely absent from the mainstream media narratives, which are caught up in eyeliner and stolen valor.

Like what you ask? Here’s just a few.

• Medicare for all.
• A complete and enduring ceasefire in Gaza.
• Diplomatic intervention in Ukraine.
• Promoting tax advantages and incentives for worker cooperatives.
• Mass student debt relief.
• Universal basic income for the poorest Americans.
• A pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers and their families.
• Coordinated federal investment into public education.
• Free public college.
• Legislative repeal of Citizens United.
• Breaking up the big banks, technology companies and industrial agriculture conglomerates.
• Widespread police reform.
• Full decriminalization of marijuana, not just a rescheduling.
• Eliminating the social security contribution threshold to secure the future of the social security trust.
• Full coverage for addiction treatment.
• Dramatically increasing the corporate tax rate and eliminating loopholes like the carried interest provision.
• Reclassifying broadband as a utility to guarantee universal high speed internet access.
• Incentives to create more biodiverse crops and punitive measures on protein manufacturers to curb our addiction to the biggest contributor to climate change.
• Ending all subsidies to fossil fuel companies.
• Closing the majority of our military bases and installations throughout the world.
• Reviving the Iran nuclear deal and de-escalating conflict in the Middle East.
• Halting the sale of arms to countries like Saudi Arabia.
• Ending crippling sanctions that only serve to impoverish foreign citizens and embolden dictators.
• Massively expanding affordable housing tax credits and vouchers and investing heavily in transit oriented development and high speed public transit.
• Reparations for indigenous nations.
• A prohibition on stock trading for federal elected officials.
• Abolishing private prisons.
• Ending homelessness with coordinated housing, addiction and mental health services.

All that being said, certain items have made it into the Democratic platform that can be tied directly to the efforts of progressives to keep them in the public eye. Paid family leave. Expanding the child tax credit. Subsidizing broadband access to poor and rural communities. Fighting to protect access to abortion pills nationally and codifying abortion rights on the state level. Protecting the right to organize in the workplace and repealing right-to-work laws. Partial student debt forgiveness for certain classes of debt holders. And a $15 minimum wage commitment by 2026.

Outside of these very specific initiatives, the bulk of the Democratic Party 2024 Platform is lip service to ideals and half measures. It’s rife with tentative language like “protect,” “preserve,” “expand” and “reaffirm.”

There’s plenty of doublespeak as well in areas like immigration and public education. For example, the party is committed to ending federal funding for charter schools and yet wants to expand the number of them under revised guidelines. The party wants to fight for a pathway to citizenship and only use detention facilities as a last resort. Seminal socioeconomic programs like poverty relief and ending homelessness come in the form of expanding tax credits and preserving welfare benefits.

I don’t know who needs to hear this but you can’t eat a tax credit.

There is very little here of substance and a complete lack of imagination to be sure.

Taking the most optimistic view of a Democratic administration, and even one with a majority in both houses, we’re looking at preserving the status quo. And it should be noted that much of the status quo is very important and must be preserved lest all of Biden’s very real accomplishments be flushed down the toilet. The critical elements of the infrastructure bill and Inflation Reduction Act require several years to pay broader economic dividends and a Trump White House and Congress threaten to kill a great number of initiatives in the crib.

So to hedge the risk of offending fucking anyone at this point, let me reiterate that the status quo is demonstrably better than the dystopian visions of incels like Stephen Miller, cokeheads like Don Jr. and charlatans like JD Vance.

So back to my problem with the DNC and the path we took to arrive at this juncture.

It’s all about leverage and downside. What leverage do we have to infuse the Party with progressive values and what are the downside risks of failing to do so beyond losing the election outright to the GOP?

Let’s start with the coronation

Was Kamala Harris the best choice? We’ll never know. But I know this, the DNC foreclosed on primary options and gave us Joe Biden. Biden quit under pressure from top DNC officials and the donor class and within hours Harris was anointed. We should all be slightly offended at the highly orchestrated and extremely undemocratic nature of this. It’s not a question of fairness, it’s about losing the ability to maintain high visibility on progressive issues when we have the most leverage. And right now, we have little to none.

Now, remember. Our perspective is progressive. Our job is to keep progressive ideals and values at the forefront even while analyzing the realpolitik nature of the current reality. So even though some of you are still miffed that I’ve been less than enthusiastic about the Harris/Walz ticket, please understand that it’s a reflection of our core principles. Let me give you an example, then we’ll move on to benchmark the election and illustrate why we need both a Harris victory in November to buy time to reorganize at a minimum, and stave off dystopia at a maximum.

Let’s talk about Governor Tim Walz. Was he a better choice than Josh Shapiro? From a progressive standpoint, sure. From a realpolitik standpoint, it’s hard to say. I dislike Shapiro for a few reasons. For starters, his Obama mimicry is super cringe. More importantly, he’s demonstrated some underlying hostility toward organized labor and public education and he’s an AIPAC shill. However, if he was the key to delivering Pennsylvania, then he might have been the salvation for establishment Democrats. (If you believe VP choices actually move the needle in that way.)

On the other hand, it would have cemented the view that a Harris administration would be a continuation of the Biden administration stance toward Palestinian rights, which would have imperiled Harris’ chances in places like Michigan. We’re going to get super granular on the numbers in a minute, but let’s stay with Michigan for a moment to illustrate how difficult this is to predict.

Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020. But Michigan went for Trump in 2016. Hence the name Swing State. Now add to the mix that there were 85,000 votes that went to candidates other than Biden and Trump in 2020 and the fact that more than 100,000 democratic voters in Michigan were uncommitted as protest votes in the primary. In 2020, there was no compelling third-party candidate like RFK Jr. either. So we’re talking about hundreds of thousands of votes that are theoretically in the wind through a combination of RFK Jr.’s presence and the possibility of an all out protest against someone like Josh Shapiro.

How progressive is Tim Walz?

So let’s talk about Walz. The sudden darling of Blue Dog democrats, liberals and progressives alike. Anyway, to the right-wing he’s a valor stealing pinko commie. To the left-wing and liberals he’s a straight shooting, born again progressive who colleagues referred to as the Bernie Sanders of Congress and now everyone’s favorite lefty uncle. Instead of taking these statements at face value, let’s look at the accomplishments of his administration that have been touted over and over again on mainstream liberal media.

(These are the top most repeated accomplishments from a cross section of sources like CBS, NPR, News Nation, The Young Turks, Time Magazine, USA Today and others. We cast a wide mainstream net to get a sense of Walz and you can really see where the media is coalescing on certain issues.)

We’ve got…

• Free school lunches.
• Red flag laws and background checks.
• Banning conversion therapy and legislating trans healthcare rights.
• Legalizing recreational weed.
• Paid family leave.
• Issuing drivers’ licenses to undocumented people.
• Restoring voting rights for felons.

Wow. Pretty progressive stuff. No wonder CNN called him a progressive champion. I mean, heck. Free school lunches in Minnesota. That’s just like California, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico and Vermont.

And red flag laws and background checks? Man, Minnesota is lucky to join Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Virginia, Florida, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont and New York.

Oh, ok. So you’re gonna keep being a dick about this and pissing off our readers.

No! I’m being serious. These are great measures.

Minnesota banning conversion therapy like California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Utah and Virginia is huge!

Not to mention protecting gender affirming care in Minnesota like they do in Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont and Maine as well as New Jersey and Arizona by executive order is monumental.

Or how about lighting one up, taking a toke, burning the ganja for shits and giggles like they do in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.

Paid family leave in Minnesota like California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Washington, Colorado, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, and Oregon, as well as the District of Columbia and a rebate system for employers in New York.

Drivers licenses to immigrants, we can add Minnesota to California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.

And how about the 23 states that restore voting rights for felons when their sentences end, the two where you never lose them and the other 15 that restore them when your parole ends. How groundbreaking!

My point, as if it wasn’t obvious, is that I’m super glad Harris chose Walz over Shapiro. Now, did he refuse to stand alongside striking teachers? Yes. Is he even more pro-police than Kamala Harris? You bet. Inequality has widened significantly in Minnesota during his tenure, but there’s only so much a governor can do in fairness. Do we know where he stands on Palestinian rights? Not really. He’s a career-long supporter of Israel but has been vocal about calling for a lasting ceasefire. Honestly, you’re kidding yourself if you think our policy toward Israel is going to change outside of optics and rhetoric.

On balance, the Democrats have the right guy to signal important baseline positions to the American public. But please stop referring to him as the next Bernie. I went through this exercise to make sure we’re all on the same page here that these are table stakes. If we’re not getting a ticket that supports measures that literally every blue state in the country supports, then Houston, we really have a fucking problem. The narrative around his accomplishments is that he’s done it with a razor thin margin in the Minnesota state house. But Minnesota overall has been one of the most reliably blue states for 50 years. I mean, Minnesota went for Dukakis and Mondale. In 1984, Minnesota was the only state that didn’t vote for Reagan. The only fucking state. So let’s have some perspective here.

As my friend and colleague Rashed Mian over at News Beat said in this week’s member newsletter:

“Harris remains a black box—or, as some have put it, she’s a political chameleon, seemingly going wherever the wind blows on any range of issues. The mystery behind her campaign is perhaps why the veepstakes effectively turned into a proxy Democratic primary, with different factions lobbying for their preferred vice presidential candidate.”

Because of the opaque nature of the campaign, we’re once again left in a “blue no matter who” situation with only the prospect of a second Trump term literally stitching left and right wing coalitions together.

With all of this background in mind, let’s pivot to examine the race as it stands right now just two-and-a-half months shy of decision time.

80 Days Out

We’re well past the days of a single candidate running the table. We’re red states, blue states and swing states at this juncture and the conventional wisdom heading into the 2024 election is that there are six key battleground states.

As an aside, I’ve seen sites claim North Carolina as a potential swing state but I see no compelling evidence to support this assertion. It’s as irrational to me as the idea that Texas and Florida are in play. All three of these are solidly red at the top of the ticket but there’s nuance further down the ballot.

That said, the battleground states in question are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. The only one of these that held the line from 2016 to 2020 is Nevada, but the popular margin of victory in 2020 for the Democratic Party was a thin 33,000 and several polls still have Harris and Trump in a dead heat.

For the purpose of analysis, I’ve taken averages of non-partisan polls to benchmark where we stand. If you’re interested in playing at home by the way, the website 270towin.com has interactive maps where you can play with electoral combinations to determine the outcome based upon multiple scenarios. As of August, with the non-swing states out of contention the Republicans have a slight electoral advantage of 235 to 226 with 270 needed to win the presidency.

So let’s break it down state-by-state.

Pennsylvania.

The home state of veepstakes runner-up Josh Shapiro and loopy John Fetterman. For most pundits this is the make it or break it state for either side because of the 19 electors up for grabs. A GOP win in Pennsylvania puts Trump only 16 electors away from victory, which could come in a few different ways. Georgia’s 16 could seal the deal alone. Any combination of two other states could also get them there. Now, in 2016 Pennsylvania went for Trump. In 2020 the state went for Biden by a popular margin of 80,555 with 101,000 votes going to third party candidates. As of mid-August, aggregate polling data has Harris running a three point lead over Trump, but this is within the margin of error so Pennsylvania is far from a lock and it remains to be seen whether PA residents will care about the Shapiro snub. RFK Jr. has ballot access in Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin.

Wisco, adopted home of Unf*cking the Republic, is an interesting one with 10 electors. The Democratic margin of victory in 2020 was slightly more than 20,000, but there were nearly 57,000 third party voters in a state that went for Trump in 2016. Right now it’s comfortably polling for Harris, but Wisconsin has a significant Arab American population and more than 47,000 residents voted “uninstructed” or uncommitted in the Democratic Primary. With such a thin margin and proclivity to vote for third party candidates, Harris will need to work hard to keep voters on her side. RFK Jr. has ballot access now in Wisconsin.

Michigan.

Home to the largest Arab American population in the U.S., voters weren’t shy about protesting the Biden/Harris administration during the primary. As we said before, more than 100,000 Democratic voters pulled the uncommitted lever. Harris’ recent tone deaf response to Palestinian rights protestors during a Michigan rally likely did her no favors, though she was quick to course correct when it happened the next time. Michigan went for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 by a popular margin of 154,000 with 85,000 voting for third parties. RFK Jr. is on the ballot in Michigan as well and the polls show Harris with only a two point lead over trump. Michigan has 15 electors up for grabs and is probably one of the hardest states to predict. If Trump were to prevail in Michigan it still puts the GOP 20 electors shy of victory so they would still need to win two more battleground states to make up the difference.

Nevada.

The only one of the six swing states to go blue in both 2016 and 2020, but Vegas isn’t willing to give clear odds on this one yet. Trump and Harris are running in a statistical dead heat and there’s intrigue in the Senate race between Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown. Even though Rosen is polling comfortably ahead of Brown, it hasn’t yet translated to the head of the ticket, so Nevada’s six electors are very much in play. While that doesn’t seem like a lot, it’s one of those sneaky holy shit states that might make the difference in a dead electoral heat. Neither candidate can afford to sleep on Nevada.

Arizona.

If there’s one state with a host of intrigue and fuckery it’s Arizona. The border is more of an issue this time around than 2020 when it went for Biden, so that’s a perilous tightrope for Harris as the Trump campaign looks to hang immigration around the Vice President’s neck. Arizona went for Trump in 2016 and it’s another state whose high profile Senator was on the VP shortlist but didn’t make the cut. It will also be in the media spotlight because of the walking fiasco that is Kari Lake who is running for the vacant Senate seat against Ruben Gallego. Gallego has a comfortable lead over queen vaseline but the danger lies in the unwanted attention she’ll garner around election fraud claims. Moreover, Biden’s margin in 2020 was a razor thin 10,000 votes in a state with 11 valuable electors up for grabs and Harris is sporting an equally thin one point lead at the moment. The good news for Democrats is that even when you add together slim margin states like Arizona, Nevada and Michigan, it’s just shy of the 270 needed to win. So theoretically Democrats can put their chips down on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia to eke out the win but as we’ll see with Georgia, that’s a risky strategy.

Georgia.

Right now, Georgia is the only one of the swing states that aggregate polling data show Trump with a slight lead. Given the hard fought victories of Senators Ossoff and Warnock and highly visible public figures like Stacey Abrams, it might seem like Georgia turned a comfortable blue corner. But the GOP’s historic effort to disenfranchise voters has been incredibly potent and Georgia’s red runs deep. As hard as it is to swallow, if it’s a question of resources, the Democrats may have to give up on this to run the table everywhere else.

Now for some good news, bad news. There are senate elections in five of the six swing states that are all leaning Democratic. That’s good news because it will likely bolster Harris and vice versa. Only Georgia doesn’t have a senate race among them.

So what’s the bad news?

The bad news is that when you add likely GOP senate wins and likely Democratic and Independent wins together it’s 50 to 48 for the GOP. The two contested races according to polling data are Montana between Republican Tim Sheehy and Democrat Jon Tester and Ohio with Republican Bernie Moreno and Democrat Sherrod Brown. If the races line up according to polling data, Brown holds Ohio but Sheehy takes Montana.

51 to 49 so even the VP isn’t left in a tie breaking scenario.

That’s right. But it gets worse. Over in the House the GOP has 209 likely seats to Democrats 201, leaving 25 seats open in extremely tight races. Even if Democrats win 2/3rds of the seats they’re just shy of taking the House. The Democrats have to be nearly perfect to take the House and it’s likely they lose the Senate.

There are so many pitfalls ahead that can derail the Democratic effort to sideline the Trump campaign. Although, I have to say that I’m amazed by how poorly the Trump campaign is responding to the turn of events. So he might very well do Harris a favor by doing himself in. Outside of him being literally the worst person in the world, however, the threats to the Harris campaign are real and she too will have to be nearly perfect.

On the Issues

First off, the economy remains the single most important factor in this and any election. As we’ve said before, what matters most is how stable and secure one feels when the time comes to pull the lever. I’m not talking about dyed-in-the-wool Democrats or MAGA Republicans, I’m talking about the independent minded voter. The middle aged white farmer that voted for Obama and Trump. The 30-something Black machinist in Georgia that barely gets by under Democrats or Republicans. The single mom who works a double every day and doesn’t have time to follow the news cycle. There is a universality to their experiences that are informed by inflation, creeping debt, stress and pressure.

Most Americans aren’t like listeners to this pod in that they have neither the time or inclination to dig into policy details. They care about the big stuff they hear all the time through the mainstream media. Abortion, immigration, healthcare, taxes. As the cycle wears on they’ll tune in to the greatest show on earth and listen to the prevailing narratives on mainstream media. They’ll be targeted by political ads on TV and their social media apps echoing the same talking points. They might be susceptible to fear mongering on the right or hopeful rhetoric on the left. But on balance they’ll align with the narrative that best reflects their state of mind. And in these cases, economic messaging will win the day. Advantage Trump.

Then there are the more enthusiastic issue-driven voters. Those motivated by reproductive rights will likely rebuke a figure like Trump. Advantage Harris. Those who are angry at the situation at the border and believe immigrants are to blame for their lack of economic mobility and freedom may very well rebuke the Democrats. Advantage Trump.

If Harris can walk a fine messaging line to placate Arab Americans and bring those who are horrified by Israel’s prosecution of the war in Gaza, she might minimize the damage done by the Biden administration. Michigan is the outlier here and on balance I see this as the most marginal issue because when it comes down to it we’re simply not motivated enough by even the most horrific images if it’s happening elsewhere. The unanswerable question here is how independent voters might respond to a widening of the conflict in the Middle East. An expanded war involving Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and other proxies could distract the lame duck administration and make the Democrats look out of control and ineffective. It’s hard to imagine the U.S. not being drawn in further to support Israel in a way that could undermine whatever line Harris tries to walk.

Here are three unknowns that could also have an outsized impact on voter sentiment: The upcoming debate, RFK Jr. and voter manipulation.

I say the debate because Trump is a deranged psychopath and the walls are closing in around him in civilian life. He’s not the Trump of old who dismantled rivals on the debate stage during the GOP primary season. He’s not the same glib chauvinist who lost to Hillary Clinton on the issues but somehow maintained his pugnacious optics that appealed to his base and Hillary haters. He didn’t have to do much to best Biden this last time around so we don’t really know which Trump we’re going to get. On the other side, Harris has proven to be an effective interrogator as a Senator and a skilled orator compared to the competition, but she’s been largely ineffective in debate settings. As a Black woman the bar for her will be set so ridiculously high compared to Trump or Biden and the media will be an even bigger obstacle than Trump in this regard. Mostly, I don’t think it matters but there have been moments in debate history that have become iconic and campaign defining so it’s at least a consideration.

The RFK Jr. effect is one of the bigger mysteries. Does he stay in for the long haul and secure ballot access in all 50 states? New York just threw him off the ballot, forcing him to appeal. He’s pretty close in nearly every state so I think we have to assume that he’ll be there. Then again, the call between him and Trump after the assassination attempt gave many the impression that RFK might be willing to drop out and throw his support behind Trump in return for a position in his administration.

(The same kind of call he reportedly just did to Harris, which now he’s bitching her out about, because it was publicly reported. So…who the fuck knows what the brain worm is telling him he should be thinking.)

I think it’s fair to say that the establishment media and the party apparatuses have done a good job suppressing RFK Jr. Turns out they’ve learned a thing or two since the Perot years. So while it’s a safe bet at this point that he’s incapable of securing Perot-like numbers of 19%, anywhere between 5% and 10% is enough to move the needle in a swing state with razor thin margins. And I’ve said all along that when it comes down to it, he pulls more from the left than the right.

And then there’s the gigantic “what if” of this whole equation. Since the 2020 election the far right has been working to delegitimize the entire voting process. Voter disenfranchisement efforts in states like Georgia and Florida have been in the works for years. Then there’s the underground efforts by people like Steve Bannon to encourage MAGA-faithfuls to volunteer as poll watchers or secure appointments as precinct captains to sow chaos on election day and invalidate votes. This is incredibly difficult to do in this day and age. But the possibility exists and we have no idea how this will play out in key districts in swing states like Arizona and Georgia that had popular margins of 10,000 and 11,000 respectively in 2020. I have no doubt that the DNC is prepared to lawyer up but the last thing we need in a tight election is chaos.

As it stands, there are more paths to victory for Harris right now than Trump. But that’s 80 days away and 60 days ago it was the complete opposite so a lot can happen.

So what’s the upshot?

I think the takeaway here is to be clear eyed. The election is like the Olympics. Most people don’t think about the Olympics for 3 years and 11 months. A relatively small segment of the population cares about politics outside of the election cycle so just know that most people are just starting to tune in. They don’t know the things you know. They’ll be bombarded by shit that doesn’t matter and talking points that have been tested and refined by specialists who feed the talking heads on television. Few, if any, of the issues that we identified in the beginning of this episode will be addressed in a meaningful way.

If we’re going to re-introduce these issues to a wider public and gather support for progressive ideals it’s not going to be during this election. It’s the other 364 days of the year. And they’ve got knives drawn and guns aimed at progressives right now. $25 million from AIPAC alone to take out Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman. Absolutely staggering. It’s our job to tune our bullshit detectors to false idols in the Democratic Party, however. We need to hold these two thoughts at the same time. Harris/Walz is not a progressive ticket. Don’t be fooled and please stop trying to paint it as such. This is as establishment as it gets. Also, a vote for Harris/Walz is infinitely better than a vote for Trump/Vance, especially when you consider the odds of losing both the House and Senate this time around.

I’m not one of those who believes that you need to burn it all to the ground to rebuild. I’m way more optimistic than that. I have to be. But I’m practical enough to understand that this is a long and difficult road ahead to recalibrate the American public around truly progressive values and we’re starting from scratch.

Here endeth the lesson.