Moving sucks but it’s certainly cathartic to clean house. It’s amazing how much you accumulate over time. Getting small and organized is good for the mind and soul to be sure. Now that this major distraction is behind us we can redouble our efforts and get to some meaty topics. I’m looking forward to continuing the “Over the Borderline” series with an examination of politics and economics in LAC countries that have contributed to the migration crisis at the southern border.
It’s our Spring Fund/Friend/Hellraiser period so hopefully you’ll consider becoming a sustaining member of the show. One of the perks is the ability to join the private “Monthly Hang with Max & Friends.” This week our special guest was none other than renowned writer and raconteur Nathan J. Robinson of Current Affairs Magazine and we had a lively discussion about Noam Chomsky, Friedrich Hayek and Donald Trump. I’m going to hazard a guess that this is the first time those three names appeared in the same sentence.
Don’t miss out on the monthly hangs and other great perks. Sign up to become a member today: www.unftr.com/memberships
This should be of great concern to the Biden Administration. Crude at $87 is not great. But given the current geopolitical factors, it could be a blip rather than a trend. Or...it could be a trend. From a purely economic standpoint, the editorial team at OilPrice.com is beginning to think that the economy is so hot that supply and demand are pushing higher.
“So, if we discount $90 as a serious resistance based on those factors for WTI, crude looks set to challenge the September high of around $94. That should create some resistance, but if the US and other economies continue to grow despite high interest rates and supply remains restricted, even that may not hold, bringing the big one, $100 crude, into the conversation for the first time in two years.”
I don’t care what the employment figures, interest rates or inflation (outside of oil) look like. If crude prices hit $100 in September, this election is all but a foregone conclusion because that’s the number that will be baked into home heating and vehicle gas prices come election time.
Headlines
While We’re Talking About Oil, Lac and Frothing Authoritarians
News about Argentina isn’t necessarily ‘above the fold’ as they say. But it’s important to keep tabs on what’s happening in the LAC economies for a number of reasons. First off, Javier Milei is the ultra-libertarian whacko that was elected recently in response to rampant hyperinflation in Argentina. Just as big brother Brazil got rid of an authoritarian leader in Bolsonaro—which seemingly marked a return to normalcy in South American politics—Milei said “hold my cerveza”. Milei is important for a few reasons. First off, he’s part of a right-wing surge in LAC that has growing support among Trump acolytes who are scheming to return to office. Noboa’s hardline stance on cartels in Ecuador is a clear reaction to Bukele’s success in El Salvador so Milei suddenly fits a particular mold rather than seeming like an outlier. But as you can see in the oil price chart, the markets are particularly sensitive to any fluctuations in supply and Milei just made a substantial gamble to take control from provincial governors that could lead to a supply disruption as they have a standoff. Timing = not great.
“Milei is taking on some powerhouses that together account for 98% of the country’s gas production and 87% of the country’s oil production, not to mention a huge share in clean energy output. Cutting off oil and gas supplies would create a massive amount of chaos that would blow back on the provinces themselves, and Milei is clearly hedging his bets that they won’t take this drastic step. The president wants the governors to sign off on his reforms, and for the time being, he is fully committed to this and calling their bluff. But these governors hold much sway in political corridors (beyond cutting off oil and gas), and Milei has few strong relations in the government, particularly in the Senate, where he is in the minority. Normally, in Argentina, the governor’s support in the Senate would have to be bought, but Milei is not only refusing to play this game, he is actually doing the opposite - withholding money and attempting to push reforms that benefit the state, not the provinces.”
Sioux Tribe Issues Their Own Removal Act of Vp-Wannabe Noem
“And stay out!” That was the message from a second Sioux tribal council to South Dakota Governor and VP Wannabe Kristy Noem. Noem has made a series of disparaging remarks about tribal leadership, insinuating—among other things—that they were in bed with drug cartels on reservation territories. So the tribes told her to basically go fuck herself. I wish the voters of South Dakota would do likewise.
From the article:
“Representatives from the Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe were angered by Noem’s presence at the quarterly Pe’ Sla meeting uninvited and unannounced on March 29 in Rapid City. She made the appearance after making a series of allegations regarding cartel involvement, mismanagement of funds and poor education towards Native Nations in the last few weeks. District Five representative Robert Walters presented a motion by resolution to ban Governor Noem from the reservation and the council voted unanimously, 12-0, to ban Noem from Cheyenne River lands.”
Lots to unpack. Overall, the employment and hiring news was pretty terrific. Again. The country added more than 300,000 jobs in March, marking the 39th straight month of growth and maintaining a solid participation rate. In the excerpt below there are some key takeaways such as growth in spite of a slight uptick in inflation and worrying trends in oil prices. But the biggest takeaway is actually a throwaway: “corporate profits have reached a record high.” This should be the lead in every single economic story to maintain our focus on the bad guy.
From the article:
“Data analysts note that better-than-expected gains in business productivity and work force participation have added fuel, too. Businesses large and small have had to navigate an obstacle course this decade: a pandemic, inflationary pressures and a steep rise in the cost of credit. But recently released data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows corporate profits have reached a record high. Officials at the Fed, which rapidly raised interest rates in 2022 and early 2023 to combat inflation, have expressed cautious optimism that they are approaching their goals of low unemployment and more stable prices. Inflation has fallen drastically from its peak of 7.1 percent, according to the Fed’s preferred measure. But it ticked up in February to 2.5 percent, still a half-percentage point away from the Fed’s target. And some worry that rising oil prices or geopolitical chaos could upend the delicate state of affairs.”
This week’s pod is a late edition of Show Notes. Max and 99 settle into the new studio and get comfortable. Now that the move is behind us, we’ll be back on track and pumping out content on our regular schedule.
Sunkara, who founded the socialist magazine when he was in college, is a leader in independent media, and has provided the blueprint for successfully elevating progressive messaging.
“Whole Woman’s Health is a privately-owned, feminist healthcare management company committed to providing holistic care for all. We manage health clinics providing comprehensive gynecology services, including abortion care. It is our philosophy that everyone must be at the center of their own healthcare decisions, and that treating people holistically — honoring head, heart, and body — will better serve and improve the health and happiness of our communities.”
“A recent Gallup poll found that 29 percent of respondents said neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden are fit for the job. To unpack how voters are feeling about the two candidates, this week on Deconstructed, Ryan Grim is joined by Anat Shenker-Osorio, a returning guest, messaging expert, and host of the podcast “Words to Win By.” Together they dig into what she’s been hearing from voters in swing states disillusioned by both parties and the whole electoral process.”
“Capitalism is an ecocidal engine constantly regenerating climate change denial. The age of denial is over, we are told. Yet emissions continue to rise while gimmicks, graft, and green- washing distract the public from the climate violence suffered by the vulnerable. This timely, interdisciplinary contribution to the environmental humanities draws on the latest climatology, the first shoots of an energy transition, critical theory, Earth’s paleoclimate history, and trends in border violence to answer the most pressing question of our age: Why do we continue to squander the short time we have left?”
“Thank you for this week’s episode on SPACs. I learned a great deal. Seems to me that these vehicles are another example of capitalism’s fundamental ability to extract value from when or wherever it can and drive that value with breakneck speed straight into the hands of the already wealthy, connected, and powerful. This particular instance seems particularly egregious due to all of the really shady and corrupt characters that are spearheading the effort, not the least of whom is the former president. It is so galling to me that yet again TFG seems to be able to find a way out of a tough spot that he got himself into due to his uncanny ability to find the cracks in the system of norms, mores, and laws, squeeze through them and come out with the lightest dusting of grime on his shoulders to brush off.”
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