Happy-Merry-whatever-you-celebrate and pre-wishes for a healthy and happy New Year my dear Unf*ckers. Welcome to the hundreds of new subscribers that have joined us from YouTube this month as well!
As I’ve alluded to in the past couple of weeks, I’m focusing on the intersection of macro trends in labor and global finance ahead of the next Trump administration. I think we dramatically underappreciate the fragility of global markets beyond trade disputes and tariff threats. I’m going to do something I never thought I would do in this newsletter (or anywhere for that matter) and that’s quote Thomas Friedman from The Times. He called China and the United States “two elephants looking at each other through a straw.”
As much as I detest Friedman, even a broken clock…
China is doing everything in its power to supercharge its economy including pandemic-level interventions and it’s not moving the needle all that much. The same can be said for the massive spending bills that coursed through the U.S. system over the transition period between Trump and Biden. These kinds of monetary and fiscal interventions are unprecedented in history and are likely covering some fundamental flaws in our global market system.
And along comes the return of Mr. Fucking Magoo.
I keep talking to people who say that they’re encouraged by the minds and backgrounds of Trump’s cabinet, at least in terms of the treasury, commerce and trade positions. I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day having these conversations. These are the same people who prayed at the altar of Alan Greenspan and every other “brilliant mind” who oversaw the [insert financial crisis/banking failure/liquidity crisis] disastrous economic event during their tenure.
Busts are a natural part of boom & bust cycles so some sort of correction is inevitable because this is the system we’ve chosen. Then there are times when we let an idiot monkey fuck around with the steering wheel to prove some sort of ideological point (cough, Nixon, cough, cough) and the whole thing comes tumbling down.
So, yeah. Am I concerned about Mr. Fucking Magoo back at the helm knowing Elon Musk is leading him around the Capitol? Yeah. I’m pretty nervous about the whole thing. Ergo, I’m tying up 2024 and kicking off 2025 with this closing/opening salvo of non-negotiables.
Other things I’m obsessing over…
Liberal normies are waking up to AOC being the future.
This stupid, low budget OpenAI video reveals their 12th announcement of the season—the capstone of their 12 Days of Christmas announcements. It also reveals the moment AI surpasses human reasoning.
Today’s chart tells so many stories. But the one I want you to see is the consumer price index (CPI) line. First, you can see a correlation between Trump’s original round of tariffs and an increase in consumer prices in China. I’m not sure how direct or indirect this is, because the tariffs haven’t arguably changed all that much since Biden took office and we had a global pandemic and inflation crisis over the next few years. So all data are muddy in my opinion.
What’s interesting is the CPI line since the pandemic has trended downward pretty consistently. After turning negative in 2023 it has barely maintained above 0% in 2024, and that’s in the face of a $1.3 trillion dollar stimulus in ‘24 and a recent announcement that they’ll be doing an additional $411 billion round in 2025 to prop up key industries, financial market liquidity and the consumer market. We’re in for an interesting ride if Trump makes good on his tariff promises and China floods its own market with even more liquidity.
Headlines
Homelessness Jumps
It’s a disgrace. There are unhoused and/or unsheltered families across the globe. We’re not an outlier. Hell, we’re not even close to the bottom. It would seem the world is more than okay living in this disgusting reality. I sure wish we weren’t.
From the article:
“The number of people experiencing homelessness topped 770,000, an increase of more than 18 percent over last year and the largest annual increase since the count began in 2007. Nearly every category of unhoused people grew, with the rise especially steep among children and people in families.”
99 and I were just talking about this in Show Notes…
I recounted a story to 99 from the Thanksgiving holiday about my relative who works for an international humanitarian non-profit named checked on the Project 2025 hit list. She said they anticipate losing the bulk of their funding but that the money won’t simply go away, rather it will be diverted to faith-based organizations. In certain circumstances, faith organizations are best-suited to administer aid and relief because of longstanding ties to local communities. In other difficult cases stemming from disease, outbreaks, war and other borderless risks, religious organizations can pose obstacles due to their anti-science postures. This article speaks to domestic relief efforts specifically but serves as a useful framework for how we’ll approach international aid, outbreak mitigation and disaster response under Trump 2.0.
From the article:
“The emphasis on faith and conversion can sometimes feel out of sync with people’s real needs. Mikaela Curry, a storm survivor and volunteer in Watauga County, North Carolina, recalled church groups offering to cook meals for flood victims and leaving stacks of Bibles behind. ‘Generally people aren’t taking them,’ she said. ‘It’s kind of this weird dynamic.’”
A couple of my holiday packages haven’t arrived yet. And I’ve never been so happy about it.
Some Amazon and Starbucks workers gummed up the holidays just enough to get the general public to notice. While my feelings around organizing are complicated by the tension that exists between social democrats and democratic socialists, it’s always good to see cross-labor solidarity.
From the article:
“The response from management was a small victory. While Carnrike wants her topped-out $24.40 an hour wage to increase to $30 an hour to compensate for the physical toll on her body, the main sticking points are safer working conditions and management accountability. She says that managers routinely penalize workers with secret write-ups and disregard the accommodations she was granted after sustaining an injury on the job.”
Max goes back to finish the hat at the close of another year. 2025 has the potential to be one of the most disruptive in living memory. The rapid rollout of Project 2025 initiatives, fireworks spewing from the Trump distraction machine, the brewing onslaught of job losses due to AI and the continuing surge of far-right governments across the globe are significant weather events that could turn to a super storm tsunami if they all take off at once. With no semblance of unity on the left to coalesce in opposition to the gathering storm, we are in for a rough patch. So what will it take to settle in and begin building a strong left again? What can we garner from the splinter of the online left and other lessons from history to formulate a winning strategy to move forward?
Here’s a snippet from the pod:
Max: “If the left is to rebuild its alliance, we need to acknowledge our legitimate differences and occupy forums where we can grapple with them to produce frameworks to move forward. Agree to disagree on some aspects but align on central themes: think coalitions rather than parties. Thinking in these terms allows us to disagree in online spaces but align on fundamental issues that turn from agreements into alliances when it matters politically. There’s a time to be ideological and a time to be transactional.”
“There are two million stories in Gaza,” [Budour] Hassan said. “Two million stories of horror, of humiliation, of war and somehow, somehow, of unbelievable desire to live.”
“These stories demand not just our attention, but our action. While the Biden administration continues to enable this genocide through military aid and diplomatic cover, these two million voices remind us of what’s at stake. Each story is an indictment of those in power, and a call to stand with those fighting for survival. Each one is worth telling.”
“In this episode of Marxist Voice, Hamid Alizadeh, member of the International Secretariat of the RCI, explores the reasons for the rapid collapse of the Assad regime, and what this means for the region.”
“Over the past several decades, predominantly White, postindustrial cities in America’s agriculture and manufacturing center have flipped from blue to red. Cities that were once part of the traditional Democratic New Deal coalition began to vote Republican, providing crucial support for the electoral victories of Republican presidents from Reagan to Trump. In How the Heartland Went Red, Stephanie Ternullo argues for the importance of place in understanding this rightward shift, showing how voters in these small Midwestern cities view national politics—whether Republican appeals to racial and religious identities or Democrat’s appeals to class—through the lens of local conditions.”
From Dave Thompson (Hold Fast Royalty) “Focus on the here and now. Stick to the mission. Shine a light on the cockroaches who are fucking our shit up *right now*. Hundreds of books have been written about John Calhoun. Bury that motherfucker in the history books and never talk about him again.”
From direct actions to lively protests, Medea Benjamin has played an instrumental role in the anti-war movement, underscored by her unwavering commitment to peace and social justice.
“United We Dream is the largest immigrant youth-led community in the country. We create welcoming spaces for young people regardless of immigration status to support, engage, and empower them to make their voice heard and win!”
