I anxiously await your responses to this episode. In the meantime, I still believe the story of this election—like every presidential election—comes down to economic certainty and comfort. On the former, things are looking up in Biden’s favor. The stronger than expected jobs report demonstrates the resilience of employment overall even in the face of scheduled 2024 layoffs at large corporations like Amazon, Google and UPS. Then, of course, there are the unrelenting stock market gains. A strong stock market matters a lot less considering most Americans aren’t heavily invested in the stock market but it’s better to have satisfied Baby Boomers in November than not.
On the flip side is comfort. Even before the job data were released the Fed announced that it was holding the line on interest rates, which means we’ll have to wait until Q2 to see whether or not Powell offers some relief to debt holders. Now factor in a couple of nuances to the Jobs Report. First off, the gains were likely inflated due to new adjustments in seasonal hiring. Because of the increasing dependence on seasonal workers during the holidays, layoffs in January always looked hugely problematic. So the Labor Department has been working to round off the edges of the reporting data. Even still, the figures exceeded expectations and that’s obviously a good thing.
In terms of sectors, the biggest gains were in healthcare, professional services and retail. That’s good and bad and ultimately doesn’t tell us all that much. It’s good to see an increase in these areas for sure. And there were other great signs such as a .6% increase in hourly wages and an uptick in hourly wages over the past year from 4.3% to 4.5%. Ultimately, however, being able to find a job and getting a marginal increase in wages might not be enough to move most Americans in a positive direction relative to their indebtedness. And if job growth means that the Fed is going to be cautious about rates going forward, then it might be too little, too late to impact the comfort part of the economic equation.
When people are uncomfortable, it leaves room for figures like Trump to drive a wedge between us with culture war issues. As much as I don’t love to lean on The New York Times op-ed pages, Ezra Klein does a really good job distilling the crisis within the Democratic Party. Much of what he’s saying echoes criticisms from our current episode and obvious flaws in establishment thinking. But it was this part that got my attention:
“Biden and his allies are framing this election as order against chaos. The party that gets things done against the party that will make America come undone. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a co-founder of the Republican polling firm Echelon Insights, believes that the Democrats are right that voters are craving stability. But she thinks they refuse to see that Trump is leading in many polls because voters believe that he is the one who might offer it.”
This is an astute observation. This tracks well with our prior episode “Revenge of the Strongman” because it demonstrates why time and again we crave strength in the face of uncertainty and conflate strength with stability. It’s also one of the reasons I’d like you to get familiar with Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. (See below in obsessions.)
Source: MarketWatch via Bureau of Labor Statistics
Here’s a closer look at the distribution of data in the Jobs report. Again, it’s a positive report overall and that’s great. To claim a real recovery that increases economic comfort in American households, we’ll need to see more robust gains in the Information, Manufacturing and Wholesale sectors. These are the sectors that indicate early and middle stage economic growth that typically translates into real wage growth. All in, it portends a standoff between the Federal Reserve and Main Street America with the election hanging in the balance.
Headlines
GM Held All the Cards All Along
You probably know by now that I’m fascinated by the historical tension between the socialist and labor movements in western nations. For example, the WSWS has been incredibly scornful of Shawn Fain’s rise to prominence in the U.S. labor movement. It’s good to understand the rift between two of the major forces that exist to defend the rights of the working class. Score one for the socialists on this one. The gains made on behalf of auto workers were great, don’t get me wrong. But when you put it in context with GM’s profits it’s hard to argue with their logic.
From the article:
“In a letter to shareholders posted Tuesday, CEO Mary Barra wrote, ‘GM reported full-year net income attributable to stockholders of $10.1 billion and Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)-adjusted of $12.4 billion with very strong free cash flow, which is allowing us to return significant capital to shareholders after reinvesting in the business. In fact, almost two-thirds of the $22 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow that we generated in 2022 and 2023 is being returned to shareholders.’
“By contrast, tens of thousands of GM workers are ‘sharing’ about 4 percent of the company’s pre-tax profit under the UAW’s bogus profit-sharing scheme. This amounts to $12,250 per worker before taxes and union dues are deducted.”
Like the Freedom Convoy in Canada a couple years ago, rightwing douchenozzles in America are heading to the U.S./Mexico border in Texas to grab their crotches, shoot cans of Bud Light and yell at people who are trying to come to America and work. Given they have time to do all this I’m guessing they themselves are out of work. Dunno. Anyway, having learned nothing from their last mass gathering at the Capitol, these freedom loving Americans are proving to be a pretty strange brew. (Another Canada reference. You’re welcome.)
From the article:
“The organizers draw from a veritable grab bag of right-wing movements and conspiracy theories: The Christian nationalist organizers refer to the convoy as ‘God’s army;’ the QAnon adherent leaders use hashtags associated with the conspiracy theory; the Covid denialist leaders spread the word about the convoy in anti-vax forums. The cross-pollination of these various factions is one thing Devin Burghart, the president and executive director of the extremism tracking group Institute for Research and Education on Human Rights, is paying close attention to.”
In Case You Need a Reminder, Jim Jordan Is an Asshole
The whacko wing of the GOP actually wanted this guy to be Speaker of the House at one point. Not that Mike “Little” Johnson isn’t terrible. Anyway, Jim Jordan remains one of the most despicable figures in Congress and has given a bad name to the rolled sleeve look. Like a good little demon, he’s using the subpoena power to do the Donald’s bidding while his master awaits his return to the seat of power.
From the article:
“Jordan has a checkered history with whistleblowers. Last year, two GOP witnesses before the so-called House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, which Jordan leads, were exposed as conspiracy theorists. And Jordan has been abusing his power as Judiciary Committee chair for a year, trying to interfere in investigations of Trump not just in the Georgia election interference case but also in Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s 34-count felony indictment of Trump over allegedly falsifying New York business records.”
Some of you are upset that I’ve targeted Biden so much lately given the threat of another Trump term. We’ve hashed and rehashed this on Show Notes but I did a little soul searching on my own to address this situation. We’re off to a strong start this year in terms of our editorial calendar but I’ve been finding it difficult to dig further into several topics knowing that there’s a growing sense of frustration with my intransigence. So I thought this was as good a time as any to work through this subject and have it out.
Here’s a snippet from the pod:
“The election is a single day. Our activism has to be 24/7/365. Pulling the lever for Biden is just an acknowledgement that we failed to make our demands heard or make demonstrable change in a system designed by and in favor of corporate oligarchs. Progressives are back to the drawing board. It is what it is. And voting for Biden is the ‘lesser of two evils’ vote, by the way. There’s no reason to call it anything else.”
The progressive Congresswoman from western Pennsylvania is not afraid of a challenge, whether it’s against her party’s wealthy donor base or in support of policies that will improve the lives of the people in her district.
“Since its founding in 1987, Jobs with Justice has been winning campaigns that build power for working people; advancing a sustainable and powerful network of grassroots coalitions; supporting the growth and leadership of local leaders and activists; and developing strategic alliances nationally and globally that strengthen the movement for workers’ rights, economic justice, and our democracy.”
I found this one really helpful. Breaks down what the UCJ case against Israel is and what it isn’t. Very different from the headline talking points we typically receive. Danny and Derek have the best guests. Very jealous.
“Danny and Derek chat with Aslı Bâli, professor of law at Yale Law School. Aslı, whose research focuses largely on human rights law and the law of the international security order, helps us break down the legal definition of genocide, the substance of the ICJ ruling and what was ordered, and the court’s ability to enforce it.”
I’ve had this on the shelf for a while. Menand is such a great writer and I’ve been meaning to dig into this but haven’t found the time. So I finally committed to it and am loving it so far.
“The Metaphysical Club was an informal group that met in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in 1872, to talk about ideas. Its members included Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr., future associate justice of the United States Supreme Court; William James, the father of modern American psychology; and Charles Sanders Peirce, logician, scientist, and the founder of semiotics. The Club was probably in existence for about nine months. No records were kept. The one thing we know that came out of it was an idea -- an idea about ideas. This book is the story of that idea.”
(99 is waaay too modest to share something like this so I’ll do it for her.)
Jasmin:
“And in the end from a baby queer feminist, I just wanna say 99 is like one of the biggest role models/inspirations in my life, and I love you and you are just great. <3”
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